Without the hype
Can You Really Run the UK on Renewables?
This is my report Nuclear vs. Renewables: Evaluating Sustainability, Security and Cost for the UK’s Energy Future, written in July 2023. It is 42 pages long, so it’s here as a PDF; below is its abstract.
Read the full report (PDF, 4.9 MB)
Abstract
This study investigates what is cheaper, nuclear or renewable generation. It compares the consequences of prioritising nuclear vs renewable energy; in doing so it elucidates the challenge of balancing renewables and unpacks the hidden cost of wind power. Government policy is examined accounting for the findings of the analysis and serious issue are found.
To produce this study GRIDSai, an electricity modelling tool was developed. GRIDSai uses data from 2017 to 2023 to calculate the complex interplay between weather patterns, electricity demand, generation capacity, and storage. Additionally, GRIDSai incorporates future electricity demand from electric vehicles, and heat-pumps, to predict how much additional generating capacity a 2035 grid will require.
The primary research questions and objectives are as follows:
- How much renewable and nuclear generation would be required to stabilise the grid?
- What is the minimum storage capacity that would be required to stabilise the grid?
- What is the estimated capital cost of each configuration?
GRIDSai reveals that an electricity grid powered predominantly by wind and solar, must be completely backed up to meet demand during periods of low wind and solar generation. This requires substantial duplicate capacity which sits idle for long periods. On the other hand, a grid predominantly powered by nuclear reactors, complemented with electrolyser and hydrogen generation, appears to offer a more stable, cost-effective, secure, and sustainable energy system for the UK. The study emphasises the importance of nuclear energy and the difficulty of balancing renewable energy generation—even with vast amounts of renewable capacity.
These findings have crucial implications for policymakers, grid operators, and energy stakeholders, including Rolls Royce, as they plan and invest in the UK’s energy infrastructure and work towards meeting climate and sustainability targets. The insights gained from this analysis can serve as a valuable resource for future research and policy development in the pursuit of a low-carbon, sustainable energy future with a significant role for small nuclear reactors.
GRIDSai, the simulation tool, enables rapid analysis of different grid configurations. It allows the user to see in seconds that small increases/decreases in capacity and storage can have outsized effects on grid stability. It enables planners to rapidly test their hypothesis about energy grid design and discount ideas which might as first glance seem desirable.
What’s in the report
A guide to the electricity grid for non-electrical professionals; how the GRIDSai model works (its data sources, heat pump and electric vehicle demand, storage); three analyses (the UK Government’s revised 2035 energy plan as of March 2023, a renewable-dominant grid and a nuclear-dominant grid), each with its capital costs; a discussion of wind, solar, storage, interconnectors and Contracts for Difference; and the conclusions and limitations.